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Date: 07 Nov 2007 09:16:41
From: Rob
Subject: Yale University Age based Rating predictor
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Interesting toy to mess with. Interesting to test it with actual
performances.
http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/chess.htm
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Date: 08 Nov 2007 14:37:48
From: raylopez99
Subject: Re: Yale University Age based Rating predictor
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On Nov 7, 9:16 am, Rob <[email protected] > wrote:
> Interesting toy to mess with. Interesting to test it with actual
> performances.
>
> http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/chess.htm
Arnad Elo had a similar statistic (a chart) in his pioneer book.
RL
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Date: 08 Nov 2007 12:47:53
From: help bot
Subject: Re: Yale University Age based Rating predictor
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On Nov 8, 11:45 am, Rob <[email protected] > wrote:
> It predicted Korchnois to within 100 points. He actually scored higher
> than the predictor... but thats not bad over a 30 to 40 year span.
But GM Kortchnoi was an anomaly.
A typical, mature chess player here in the USA started
around the time of the Fischer boom, peaked not too
long afterward, then began a gradual decline and now is
considerably weaker than his peak (and is still obsessed
with Bobby Fischer and remains in denial... until death).
Seriously, the rate of decline was way, way off. (At 130
years old, I will /still/ be better than Sanny?) I think they
have assumed that people are going to live much longer
in the future, and are ignoring the reality of super-size-me
fast food, HDTV, and robots which will soon do all the
household chores so you only need to get out of your
easy chair once a month, to replace the worn-down
batteries in your remote controls. Look, my neighbor's
car can park itself, there are robots which mow the
lawn automatically and find their own rechargers, etc.
Even now, they are working on speech recognition so I
will no longer burn calories typing out text... .
-- help bot
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Date: 08 Nov 2007 08:45:46
From: Rob
Subject: Re: Yale University Age based Rating predictor
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On Nov 7, 12:20 pm, help bot <[email protected] > wrote:
> On Nov 7, 12:16 pm, Rob <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > Interesting toy to mess with. Interesting to test it with actual
> > performances.
>
> >http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/chess.htm
>
> Ridiculous! It predicts that at age 100, I will be back
> where I started at 1000 on GetClub.
>
> Seriously, I think they factored in certain assumptions
> about players starting out young, reaching their peaks
> fairly rapidly -- that sort of thing. My decline should be
> much faster than predicted by this tool, unless rampant
> ratings inflation returns soon (like right now).
>
> -- help bot
LOL
It predicted Korchnois to within 100 points. He actually scored higher
than the predictor... but thats not bad over a 30 to 40 year span.
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Date: 07 Nov 2007 10:20:01
From: help bot
Subject: Re: Yale University Age based Rating predictor
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On Nov 7, 12:16 pm, Rob <[email protected] > wrote:
> Interesting toy to mess with. Interesting to test it with actual
> performances.
>
> http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/chess.htm
Ridiculous! It predicts that at age 100, I will be back
where I started at 1000 on GetClub.
Seriously, I think they factored in certain assumptions
about players starting out young, reaching their peaks
fairly rapidly -- that sort of thing. My decline should be
much faster than predicted by this tool, unless rampant
ratings inflation returns soon (like right now).
-- help bot
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